Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 45.863728 54.103966 63.160783 73.821541 85.992957 99.421030 115.320666
2024-10-27 31.311259 41.585742 54.022150 70.046718 89.995738 113.850635 144.354863
2024-11-03 25.504614 37.059485 52.089752 72.773356 100.152236 134.770611 181.409875
2024-11-10 21.998795 34.458481 51.657307 76.618301 111.308176 157.121970 221.368747
2024-11-17 19.215832 32.193191 51.073683 79.774585 121.362682 178.345151 260.974747
2024-11-24 16.329567 29.191914 48.868450 80.111337 127.169962 193.857721 293.539672
2024-12-01 13.447669 25.655276 45.283279 77.804584 128.652131 203.061190 317.515464
2024-12-08 11.642061 23.562662 43.606861 78.096362 133.814919 217.655071 349.829341
2024-12-15 10.294567 22.025822 42.591512 79.229578 140.207612 234.293996 385.921910
2024-12-22 8.082463 18.496952 37.690244 73.318975 134.718936 232.252489 393.463315
2024-12-29 7.317336 17.630299 37.369495 75.155809 141.973323 250.399871 432.945077
2025-01-05 6.324666 16.119325 35.649885 74.287414 144.501432 261.023134 461.007441
2025-01-12 6.179014 16.534350 37.922180 81.434458 162.347614 299.166846 537.773529
2025-01-19 4.875409 14.110785 34.284599 77.173499 159.835291 303.715451 560.862453
2025-01-26 4.410952 13.551636 34.377279 80.120816 170.630673 331.519754 624.196875
2025-02-02 4.095256 13.290512 35.057915 84.294193 184.022254 364.627849 698.324971
2025-02-09 3.759355 12.896830 35.374046 87.719353 196.216653 396.312502 771.661433
2025-02-16 3.276384 11.975216 34.321626 88.084701 202.401467 417.493008 827.709840
2025-02-23 2.712718 10.659376 32.097269 85.581607 202.556347 427.530486 864.406599
2025-03-02 2.369965 9.923318 31.183000 85.898266 208.461261 448.579032 921.961643
2025-03-09 2.111252 9.386988 30.693158 87.127987 216.345426 473.797793 988.355553
2025-03-16 1.611465 7.844689 27.207729 80.711746 207.193987 465.403816 991.736312
2025-03-23 1.463446 7.543491 27.137400 82.706332 216.650757 494.148769 1066.537562